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Boxed OnlineGary Kellett · Architect · CTO · AI, home

Work / Evidence

Quoted versus delivered.

The full log. Each row is a build, the estimate written before it started, and what was delivered. Nothing here is rounded in my favour.

Method

How the numbers were made.

  1. Estimated before the build

    Each estimate comes from a written plan, produced before any code, sized as a conventional team would size it. The plans are still in the repositories, dated.

  2. What delivered means

    Built, tested and working against acceptance criteria. It does not mean production-hardened. Penetration tests, performance runs and identity set-up follow, and are part of a build engagement.

  3. Why team-weeks

    A team-week is the effort a conventional team would put in. Quoting it that way keeps the comparison fair and stops the claim sliding into a boast about my personal speed.

The log

Every build, measured.

Estimates in team-weeks of estimated effort. Delivered means built and tested.
BuildEstimated before the buildDeliveredEvidence
Condexa rule designer9-10 weeks52-63 developer-days for two developers, written in the plan before the buildOne eveningEight build phases committed in about 3.5 hours; merged the next day after UX fixesPlan and commit history in the repository
Healthcare scheduling platformClient work, anonymised29 team-weeksAbout 560 person-days across three phases, sized for a team of about five2 daysAll three phases built and passing acceptance tests; phase two in about an hourPhase plans and commit history
KashPots refactor5.5 weeks"Roughly 5.5 working weeks for one engineer"4 hours57 of 64 planned tasks (89%) complete in one morningRefactor plan and branch commits
Multi-tenant access-control frameworkClient work, anonymised14 weeks248 person-days for 4.5 people5 daysWorking packages in a day; a remediated alpha with 822 automated tests in fivePlan, package feed and 191 commits
Technology budget and approvals appClient work, anonymised15.5 team-weeksSliced plan for a team of 4.52 days14.5 team-weeks of slices built and workingSlice plan and project notes
PrezzyListNot estimatedBuilt straight from a product concept3 daysIdea to live platform with CI/CD, observability and a full onboarding epic26 commits, 28-30 September 2026

Sources: dated plans, git history and project notes. Client builds are anonymised with permission.

What the research says

The honest picture.

Independent evidence on AI and developer speed is mixed. I would rather show you that than hide it.
METR, 2025
In a randomised trial, experienced open-source developers were 19% slower when they used AI tools, while believing they were faster.
Read the source (METR, 2025, opens in a new tab)
Google DORA, 2025
AI amplifies whatever engineering practice is already there. Strong teams get stronger; weak practice gets louder.
Read the source (Google DORA, 2025, opens in a new tab)

So the speed does not come from the tool. It comes from the process and the architecture discipline around it. That is what you are buying.

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